12.01.26 - 16.01.26
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +16.79% | VIX +13.41% | NG +9.20% |
DOGEUSD -7.18% | CORN -4.46% | NQ -2.29% |
US indices are consolidating near recent highs. They came under short-term pressure at the start of the week after statements made by the US Federal Reserve chairman regarding potential criminal charges from the US Department of Justice as a result of a Trump administration push. They began to rise again thanks to earnings reports and positive US macroeconomic data.
In the forex market, the dollar has primarily gained on strong labour market news and data from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve branches. Precious metals (gold and silver) continued to rise due to persistently high geopolitical tension.
Brent crude oil prices rose to $66.80 amidst an escalation in the Middle East. After the US president announced that the US would potentially not interfere in Iran's domestic affairs, prices began to fall.
Key events of the current week
| Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 20.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy remains fragile, with GDP growth slowing and the manufacturing PMI remaining below 50, indicating a contraction in the sector. This is an alarming signal for the country's industrial-heavy economy. Last year, large companies carried out significant staff reductions, increasing the risk of a deterioration in business sentiment. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is expected to decline. Negative macroeconomic data are putting pressure on the euro, and the EUR/USD pair could continue to fall towards 1.1500. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 21.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy is facing stagflation. Annual GDP growth is only 1.3%, unemployment is at its highest since 2021, and the country is experiencing high inflation. This presents the government and the Bank of England with a dilemma: should they stimulate the economy or contain inflation? Analysts expect inflation to drop slightly. In the short term, this is favourable for the pound since the Bank of England can't ease its monetary policy for now. The GBP/USD pair may begin to rise again towards 1.3500. | |||||
| The US. GDP growth rate USD/JPY | DATE 22.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy remains resilient, and revised data show that GDP growth is picking up pace. The labour market is stabilising, with initial jobless claims declining. This allows the US Federal Reserve to pause its rate cuts, despite pressure from Donald Trump to continue doing so. Keeping rates high supports the dollar. In this context, the USD/JPY pair could resume its upward movement to 159.00. | |||||
